SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
President Trump says he'll be making a, quote, "major statement" tomorrow about Russia. The promised announcement comes amid the president's growing frustration with Russia over U.S.-backed efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This morning, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump ally, spoke to CBS News. He was just back from a recent trip to Ukraine.
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LINDSEY GRAHAM: A turning point regarding Russia invasion of Ukraine is coming. For months, President Trump has tried to entice Putin to the peace table. He's put tariffs against countries that allow fentanyl to come in our country, other bad behavior. He's left the door open regarding Russia. That door's about to close.
DETROW: To discuss what we might expect and how this is all being seen in Russia, we're joined now by NPR's Charles Maynes from Moscow. Hey, Charles.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Hi there.
DETROW: So this major announcement sounds intriguing. Of course, the president also has a long track record of changing his mind or not following through about coming promised announcements. Still, any indication what Trump might be saying?
MAYNES: Well, to a degree, yes - in an interview with NBC last week, Trump said he'd struck a deal with NATO leaders to purchase American-made weapons, which NATO leaders in Europe have indicated they would then provide to Ukraine. So effectively, this would make NATO, not the U.S., the arbiter of the decision to provide military aid to Ukraine, a kind of loophole to Trump's aversion to American taxpayers footing the bill for Ukraine's defense. So that's one part of it. And then we also, as you noted in your intro, may see Trump make some announcement regarding new sanctions against Russia's energy sector, in particular. A Senate package that Senator Graham has pushed appears to have been reconfigured to give Trump the option to use these sanctions on and off at will, as a kind of snap pressure tactic on Moscow.
DETROW: Charles, a long trend line of Trump's time in office has been his sympathetic views toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump came into office, again, promising to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours based largely on that relationship. So remind us how we got here.
MAYNES: Yeah. You know, Trump came in offering to cut a peace deal on terms very generous to Russia. Ukraine would have to give up territory and its bid for NATO membership, for example. There was also this idea of sanctions relief. And Putin, you know, seemed to engage diplomatically as a result - first in talks with the U.S., with Trump, and then with Ukraine. But Putin kept saying no to the most important part of any deal, a ceasefire, even a temporary one. And so, while negotiations have resulted in deals of a humanitarian nature - prisoner exchanges, for example - the war has just continued. In fact, it's ramped up. And so we've seen Trump grow increasingly frustrated, even to the point where he seems now to have come around to what critics have been saying all along, that Putin is intentionally dragging out negotiations. Here's Trump at the White House this past week.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We get a lot of [expletive] thrown at us by Putin for - you want to know the truth? He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.
DETROW: What has been the Kremlin's response to all of this?
MAYNES: Well, Putin hasn't commented directly, but his spokesman Dmitry Peskov basically said this was no big deal, noting Trump uses tough language all the time. Now, Peskov also said Russia would take a wait-and-see approach to Trump's announcement Monday. That said, some Russian analysts here say the Kremlin never had any illusions about Trump's ability to end the war, just as they have no illusions Trump really wants to get more involved in Ukraine. Sergey Poletaev is with the analytical website Vatfor here in Moscow.
SERGEY POLETAEV: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: So here, Poletaev says that Trump has little he can do to change the trajectory of the war, either towards peace or escalation so long - Poletaev adds - as Trump is unwilling to risk a conflict between the U.S. and Russia, two nuclear powers, directly. So Poletaev is arguing that beyond the tough talk, Trump's actual options here are quite limited.
DETROW: You mentioned the war has been ramping up lately. What's the latest?
MAYNES: Well, Russia fired more than 600 drones and long-range missiles overnight, killing four people, according to Ukrainian authorities. It's part of a recent pattern where Russia launches hundreds of drones, some ballistic missiles, seemingly with the goal of exhausting Ukrainian air defenses and morale. Now, Ukraine, too, sends drones into Russian airspace, not as many and not as deadly, but they're certainly wreaking havoc on air travel. Meanwhile, Russia continues to make slow advances on the battlefield, albeit with heavy losses. But that's also true for Ukraine, which is struggling to reinforce troops. And all of this has Putin seemingly convinced that whatever Trump's actions Monday or beyond, time is on Russia's side.
DETROW: That is NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow. Thanks so much.
MAYNES: Thank you, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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