ADRIAN FLORIDO, HOST:
Tonight President Trump said that an agreement with Iran is, quote, "complete." Let the oil flow, he said in a social media post. The prime minister of Pakistan also said that Iran and the U.S. have reached a deal. Full details are not yet clear. We'll bring you the latest as we learn it. Earlier today, though, there still seemed to be major obstacles after Israel bombed the outskirts of Beirut, saying the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah had fired toward northern Israel. Meanwhile in Iran, the monthslong war has been devastating the country's economy, so much so that it could spell out a dire political crisis in Iran, one that the writer and historian Arash Azizi wrote about in a recent piece for The Atlantic, titled "The Crisis Iran's Leaders Can't Ignore." Arash Azizi, welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
ARASH AZIZI: Hello. it's great to be with you.
FLORIDO: You argue in your article that the deterioration of Iran's economy as a result of the war is becoming so severe that it could lead to an untenable political crisis for Iran's leadership. Can you just start by describing that deterioration? You know, what's happened to Iran's economy since the start of the war?
AZIZI: Well, you know, the Iranian economy has gotten worse for years under the hammerblow of Western-imposed sanctions, leading to economic mismanagement, a lot of corruption at home. This combination had already had Iranian economy in a really bad state in the last few years, and not only a bad state, but continuously worsening ones, right? So people really feel like, every year, they're doing worse than the last year. And by any measure, they really are doing worse than the last year.
But since the start of the war, we've had a few more catalysmic (ph) events. There's the destruction of Iran's productive capacity - attacks on steel foundries, on petrochemical facilities. Iran also imposed an internet ban, first during January, where there were mass protests and Iran massacred thousands of its own protesters. So they've imposed an internet ban that lasted for a few months. It was only lifted last month. That itself also led to a lot of people losing their jobs. All of this means that Iran is in a really precarious economic position.
FLORIDO: You spoke to several Iranians, who you don't fully identify in order to protect them from possible reprisal from the government. Can you describe what some of these folks told you about how this economic instability has affected them personally?
AZIZI: I spoke to tons of people who've lost their jobs. I spoke to a dairy worker who was let go. They basically told him, we'll call you back when there is a job. I spoke to people who still work but don't get paid. I spoke to people whose lifestyle has changed so much, which was a polite way of saying they can't really afford some of the life basics. I spoke to people who cannot think of buying meat or chicken again, you know, not - don't even talk about fish. Tons of different people who've had really their lives destroyed, frankly, by the events of the past few months. They can't get jobs. They face higher prices and a really uncertain future.
FLORIDO: And because so much of Iran's economy depends on imports, which are sort of affected right now by the U.S. blockade.
AZIZI: Yes, exactly. The U.S. blockade has really not helped, nor has Iran's fight with several of its maritime neighbors, like the UAE. That means that a lot of essential goods don't enter Tehran, or worse, they enter through more limited ways, which means corruption, which means much more expensive. And also, imagine this person who sells mobile phones. Even if you could get them imported, who's he going to sell them to where people have lost jobs and they don't have any money to invest in such things?
The shift is also important. There are many poor people around the world. There are many countries in which people unfortunately live on less than $2 a day. But people that I speak to remember a time when they had middle-class lives, right? One of the people I spoke to - 10 years ago, I remember she was thinking whether she should take her summer vacations in Germany or closer to home, somewhere like Turkey. Now she can't afford to buy meat regularly.
FLORIDO: Is Iran's government doing anything to try to address these economic pressures being, you know, brought to bear on its citizens?
AZIZI: Well, like any government, obviously - you know, there is the civilian government and does try to do things here and there, but it's too little, too late. It's nowhere enough. It's kind of ludicrous. And most importantly, the government is not doing anything to pay for people's damages in the war - people who have had their houses damaged in the war. It's the most elementary duty of any government. So there are many well-meaning people working in the Iranian government who do try to make things better, but the overall direction of the regime hasn't been there. For years, it hasn't really prioritized the well-being of its people, and it also has very difficult ways of doing so.
FLORIDO: You know, given all this damage you've described to oil and production facilities, other types of infrastructure in Iran, do you have a sense of how long it would take Iran's economy to recover from all of that damage, even if the war would end, say, tomorrow?
AZIZI: I think it will take a few years for it to get back to where it was on February 28. But even where it was on February 28 wasn't great - is important to remember. I think it will take a few years just to rebuild its - some of its manufacturing capabilities and other things that have been lost in the war. But on the brighter side, if it's able to get a sanctions relief or something more lasting out of a deal with America - these sanctions have lasted for decades sometimes - so it might have abilities to be able to bring back economic growth in ways that we haven't seen for a long time.
It's important to remember that Iran does have a new leadership now. Now, this new leadership is not what we hoped for. It's obviously not democratic. But it's also Ayatollah Khamenei. Now, his son and other people who are in charge of Iran now do have a fresh opportunity. Will they give a different hand to their people? Will they follow a different path? And that remains to be seen.
FLORIDO: I've been speaking with writer and historian Arash Azizi. Mr. Azizi, thank you so much.
AZIZI: Thank you so much, guys. Thank you. It's great to be with you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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