TRANSCRIPTION:
Cathy Shafran: This is 89.1 WEMU. I'm Cathy Shafran. As we've just heard on NPR, former President Trump this afternoon has pleaded not guilty to the 37-count indictment against him related to his handling of classified documents at the Florida Mar-a-Lago resort after he left office. This is the second indictment against him comes just months after Trump was charged by a Manhattan grand jury in a hush money case. Trump continues to deny any wrongdoing in both cases and is actually trying to use the indictments to rally his base. While the legal process moves forward, many are questioning what impact these charges are going to have on his voters and voters in general. What impact will it have on Michigan voters? We pose that question now to Rhonda Longworth. She's a political science professor and provost at Eastern Michigan University. Professor Longworth, thanks so much for being with us.
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: Thank you.
Cathy Shafran: You know, we've heard Trump in speeches this past week. He's talking up what he sees as this political attack against him. He's using it to try to raise sympathy for his base. How are we seeing things playing out here in Michigan with voters?
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: Well, I think that in some ways, voters in Michigan are going to respond the same way as voters nationally, which is their opinion likely isn't going to be changed by this. But I think what we'll have to wait and see about is how much energy it brings to each of the political parties as they go into the next election cycle and whether that Democrats will be able to get their voters as energized as Republicans will. Sometimes, it's easier to get people energized about a negative reaction to something, as opposed to excited about something positive. And I think we'll have to see. But right now, there's been a pretty muted response so far in politics.
Cathy Shafran: On a national basis, I've seen a recent poll that said--an Ipsos poll, I believe--that questioned what were called independent voters nationwide. They were seeing a near equal percentage of Americans believing both that Trump should have been charged, but also that the charges against him were politically motivated. So, that's coming from an independent group of people.
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: Yeah.
Cathy Shafran: Is that what we're seeing, do you think, amongst Michigan voters? How would you describe what we're seeing here?
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: I think what we're seeing here is it's pretty representative of that. I think when you see variances from state to state across the country, it's because of the mix of voters that are in the state. So, there's no individual voters left really making new decisions about Donald Trump. They have a baked-in opinion about that. So, at any given point, it really is what you just said: the very small number of people who are independent or haven't made a decision yet about him or how excited you can get different people to come out and either, you know, participate in some sort of activity politically or vote. And so, that's what you see each party trying to do, which is how do you use that to motivate your voters to come out in larger numbers or smaller numbers. In Michigan, it's been pretty evenly divided, as we've seen in a lot of political settings. And so, you know, it isn't a real visible response yet, but I think we'll have to see how that plays out by the time the next election cycle comes. Right now, I don't think people are really all that surprised by this because, as you say, everybody sees the environment is so politicized and partisan right now. So, they see everything as motivated by that. But then, they also think that some of these things are problematic. And we're going to have to see. The trial will likely be going on right as we go into our next election. So, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out there.
Cathy Shafran: Is there a way that this election can play out without reference to the indictments against Trump?
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: I don't see how that would be possible. I think that....I mean, part of this is because populism has become such a strong trend, particularly in the Republican Party, but also in the Democratic Party to some extent, too, where it's very anti-establishment, very much, you know, a partisan contest between, you know, each side. And I can't imagine how in that kind of a conflictful environment that it wouldn't because everybody has taken a pretty visible stance around it. And I don't think either party is going to be ready to let go of it by that time, regardless of what the outcome is. They're still going to be fighting it out and trying to use it some way to fuel their base campaign for the next election.
Cathy Shafran: In Michigan, we are currently seeing some form of conflict between the Michigan Republican Party and other GOP leaders in terms of fundraising and also electoral votes. Does this bode toward seeing some kind of conflict when it comes to Trump and his indictments and how the Republican Party and Republican voters view that?
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: Yeah, I think Republicans, traditionally, have been pretty good at rallying around their candidate by the time elections come. I mean, Ronald Reagan probably is most famous for saying it that you don't speak ill of other Republicans. And they've had a long tradition of really holding together at the time when an election occurs and when an important action occurs. And you've seen that so far with Trump, not a lot of breaking ranks yet. Even conflicts seem to get settled by the time a final decision happens. So, I'd be surprised if they don't. But Michigan is one of the states where that hold has been a little less strong than in others. So, if it was going to happen, it would be at a place like that. You've seen a lot of the moderate leaders who've been willing to speak up have come from Michigan and a few other states. So, I don't think it's likely. But if it did, it would happen in a state like Michigan.
Cathy Shafran: So, you don't think it's likely that the indictment issue would separate further those in the Republican Party who are already seeing a split?
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: I think that what you've seen is when it does separate them, that the dissenters are pushed out of the center of power. I mean, you see somebody like Liz Cheney, who's from a distinguished political family in the Republican Party. And, in the end, when there's a conflict, they push it out, and the center tends to come together around the winner of that conflict. And so, I have a hard time, given the energy that's still there around Trump and the ideology that he's attached himself in the Republican Party. To think that in two years, even 18 months now closer, that that's going to disintegrate that measurably. What I do think can happen, however, is that what you'll see is the lack of energy to get people out to vote is something that could happen. It's hard to motivate a base when your leader is on trial day in and day out and having to put the energy into something like that. So, I could see there being less enthusiasm. But I don't know about the unity breaking down entirely yet.
Cathy Shafran: Rhonda Longworth, a political science professor and provost at Eastern Michigan University, thank you so much for joining us today to talk about this ongoing issue. We will continue to follow it. And we, again, thank you so much for joining us.
EMU Professor Rhonda Longworth: Thanks for having me.
Cathy Shafran: I'm Cathy Shafran, and this is 89.1 WEMU.
RESOURCES:
Non-commercial, fact based reporting is made possible by your financial support. Make your donation to WEMU todayto keep your community NPR station thriving.
Like 89.1 WEMU on Facebook and follow us on Twitter
Contact WEMU News at734.487.3363 or email us at studio@wemu.org
