This year's Oscars will be handed out in just a few days, and we've got the movies to go with them. In this week's "Cinema Chat," WEMU's David Fair and the Michigan Theater Foundation executive director, Russ Collins, discuss Sunday's Academy Awards and the rest of the movie news from Hollywood and in our area.
LET'S TALK ABOUT OSCAR ODDS...
Oscar Odds – Best Picture
Nomadland -600
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +600
Minari +1400
Promising Young Woman +1600
Mank +3000
Judas and the Black Messiah +3300
Sound of Metal +10000
The Father +10000
After winning the Golden Globe for Best Picture Drama as a -180 favorite, Nomadland has vaulted up the oddsboard to become a -600 favorite in Oscar odds to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. The film stars Frances McDormand as a widow who travels across the United States after losing her job and meets people in similar struggling circumstances. The movie has been universally acclaimed by film critics and seems like a runaway train to take the golden statue.
The competition in the Best Picture category for 2020 doesn’t seem as overwhelming as in years past with the COVID-19 pandemic shuttering a lot of new productions. Nearly all of the films nominated for Best Picture were shot prior to the pandemic, which may partially explain why Nomadland is such an odds-on favorite for arguably the most coveted award in the film industry.
Would films like “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Mank” or “The Father” be nominated in a conventional year? It’s hard to tell but it’s clear that one movie stands above the rest in Best Picture Oscar odds.
Oscar Odds – Best Director
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) -2500
David Fincher (Mank) +1000
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) +1600
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) +1600
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) +2800
Much like Best Picture, the Best Director category for the Academy Awards has an odds-on favorite for Nomadland, with Chloe Zhao set as a -2500 favorite. I don’t know what’s crazier – that Zhao is such a big favorite or that she is only the third female nominee for this category since 2009. Greta Gerwig was nominated back in 2017 for “Ladybird” and Emerald Fennell joins Zhao in 2020 for “Promising Young Woman.” Zhao seems all but a lock to win this award, and 2009 is notable because it was the first and only time a female director won the Best Director award, with Kathryn Bigelow taking it for “The Hurt Locker.” If Zhao doesn’t win it, consider Fennell as a worthy backup bet based on the odds (+1600) and increasingly relevant subject matter for her film “Promising Young Woman.”
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) -1600
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) +700
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) +1400
Steven Yeun (Minari) +2500
Gary Oldman (Mank) +2800
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Actress
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) +135
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) +185
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) +350
Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday) +600
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) +1400
As I said in my Golden Globes piece, Chadwick Boseman is the biggest lock of all time to win his first Academy Award posthumously for his electric role as Levee Green in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Boseman is currently one of the largest favorites among nominees for any category in Oscar odds at -1600 and also was awarded the Best Actor Golden Globe for Drama for the role.
Best Actress might be the most competitive category in Oscar odds because five candidates did outstanding work to get nominated and each has a legit case to win. Carey Mulligan is the +135 favorite for “Promising Young Woman,” which focuses on the victimization of women and how one woman took matters into her own hands for retribution after the passing of her best friend.
Viola Davis opened at +1200 and has shot up to +185 for her role as “Ma Rainey” opposite Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” The physical transformation of Davis to play the part while showcasing her acting chops could make her a popular choice for this betting prop.
Mulligan certainly warrants being the favorite in this spot but other nominees like Frances McDormand (+350) and Andra Day (+600) could win this award. Day may be the value play here at +600 for her portrayal of Billie Holiday as she won the Best Actress Golden Globe for Drama for this role and the buzz is building for her chances as we enter SAG and BAFTA award season.
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) -1400
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) +900
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night In Miami) +1400
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) +1400
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) +2500
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Supporting Actress
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) -300
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) +275
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) +1100
Olivia Coleman (The Father) +1600
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) +2000
Anyone who saw “Judas and the Black Messiah” knew Daniel Kaluuya was going to be a heavy favorite (-1400) for Best Supporting Actor, regardless of competition. Kaluuya portrays Fred Hampton, who was the chairman of the Black Panther Party in Illinois back in the late 1960s and combats racial injustice before being brought down by an informant played by LaKeith Stanfield (+2500), who was also nominated for this category.
While it’s Kaluuya’s award to lose, a special shout-out goes to Leslie Odom Jr. for his role as the legendary Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami,” which allowed Odom to show his acting and singing range as the great vocalist.
For Best Supporting Actress, newcomer Maria Bakalova for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” opened as the fave in Oscar odds at EVEN but has since dropped to +275. That’s because Yuh-Jung Youn for the film “Minari” has jumped in as the new fave at -300 after opening at +320. Youn plays “Soon-ja,” a Korean grandmother who relocates to Arkansas to help her son’s produce farm and watch her grandchildren.
As for Bakalova, the 24-year-old Bulgarian had arguably the most memorable performance by any actor in 2020 with her hilarious turn as Borat’s daughter “Tutar” and stole nearly every scene she was in for the prank comedy.
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman -250
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +175
Minari +1400
Judas and the Black Messiah +3300
Sound of Metal +3300
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland -350
The Father +450
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm +550
One Night In Miami +1600
The White Tiger +3000
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Animated Film
Soul -900
Wolfwalkers +450
Onward +1400
Over the Moon +2800
Shaun The Sheep: Farmageddon +4000
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Cinematography
Nomadland -210
Mank +190
News of the World +1200
Judas and the Black Messiah +1600
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +2000
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Costume Design
Film Odds
Emma +120
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom +120
Mank +350
Pinocchio +2200
Mulan +2800
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Documentary Feature
Time -110
My Octopus Teacher +175
Collective +400
Crip Champ +1200
The Mole Agent +2200
Oscar Odds – Best Film Editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7 -130
The Sound of Metal +160
Nomadland +600
Promising Young Woman +1400
The Father +2200
2020 Oscar Odds – Best International Feature
Another Round -700
Quo Vadis Aida +500
Collective +1200
Better Days +2000
The Man Who Sold His Skin +3000
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Makeup
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom -250
Hillbilly Elegy +550
Mank +650
Pinocchio +650
Emma +1400
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Original Score
Soul -800
Mank +500
Minari +1200
News of the World +2500
Da 5 Bloods +2800
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Sound
Sound of Metal -900
Mank +850
Soul +850
News of the World +1800
Greyhound +2200
Odds as of April 14 at Bovada
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Visual Effects
Tenet -450
The Midnight Sky +285
Mulan +1500
Love and Monsters +2800
The One and Only Ivan +3000
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Short Film (Animated)
If Anything Happens, I Love You -240
Opera +450
Burrow +600
Genius Loci +700
Yes-People +1800
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Documentary (Short Subject)
A Love Song for Latasha -300
A Concerto Is A Conversation +500
Colette +500
Hunger Ward +1100
Do Not Split +2500
2020 Oscar Odds – Best Live-Action Short Film
The Letter Room -275
Two Distant Strangers +200
Feeling Through +1800
The Present +1800
White Eye +2500
OSCAR EVENTS
Before you tune into the ceremony on Sunday, join our special virtual Oscars Preshow with MTF Executive Director Russ Collins and a special guest as they discuss their predictions and lots more. The fun starts at 7:00PM, so sign up in advance on the Michigan Theater website.
AND
Gather your trivia team and play a special Academy Awards edition of Virtual Movie Trivia this Friday! Join us via Zoom starting at 7PM for a chance to win movie tickets, merch, and more. @michtheater.org
OPENING DOWNTOWN
"Dragon Slayer" -- OPENS FRIDAY, APRIL 23 AT THE STATE
After his family was brutally murdered and his sister turned into a demon, Tanjiro Kamado's journey as a demon slayer began. Tanjiro and his comrades embark on a new mission aboard the Mugen Train, on track to despair.
"Together Together" -- OPENS FRIDAY, APRIL 23 AT THE STATE
When young loner Anna (Patti Harrison) is hired as the gestational surrogate for Matt (Ed Helms), a single man in his 40s who wants a child, the two strangers come to realize this unexpected relationship will quickly challenge their perceptions of connection, boundaries and the particulars of love.
SPECIAL SCREENINGS DOWNTOWN
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" -- PLAYS SUNDAY, APRIL 25 AT THE MICHIGAN
The Lord of the Rings movie trilogy ends with this film, winner of 11 Academy Awards! Followed by an onscreen conversation with Peter Jackson, Ian McKellen, Andy Serkis, and moderated by Stephen Colbert! Trivia note: "The Return of the King" won the Best Picture Oscar!!
CONTINUING DOWNTOWN
"Minari" -- PLAYING ALL WEEKEND AT THE STATE
If you liked the indie hit “The Farewell” (starring Awkwafina), you will like this film. A tender and sweeping story about what roots us, the film follows a Korean-American family that moves to a tiny Arkansas farm in search of their own American Dream. The family home changes completely with the arrival of their sly, foul-mouthed, but incredibly loving grandmother. Amidst the instability and challenges of this new life in the rugged Ozarks, Minari shows the undeniable resilience of family and what really builds a home and family. Starring Steven Yeun ("Burning") and Yeri Han ("Champion").
"Nomadland" -- PLAYING ALL WEEKEND AT THE MICHIGAN
Following the economic collapse of a company town in rural Nevada, Fern (Frances McDormand) packs her van and sets off on the road exploring a life outside of conventional society as a modern-day nomad. The third feature film from director Chloé Zhao, this film features real nomads Linda May, Swankie, and Bob Wells as Fern’s mentors and comrades in her exploration through the vast landscape of the American West.
Oscar Nominated Animated Shorts -- PLAYING FRIDAY, APRIL 23 AT THE STATE
Each year, we're thrilled to present the Academy Award-nominated shorts programming featuring the year's most spectacular short films. From 96 total qualifying films, these five received nominations in the Animated Short Film category at the 93rd Academy Awards.
- "Burrow" – Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat (USA, 6 min.)
- "Genius Loci" – Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise (France, 16 min.)
- "Opera" – Erick Oh (USA, 9 min.)
- "If Anything Happens, I Love You" – Will McCormack and Michael Govier (USA, 12 min.)
- "Yes-People" – Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson (Iceland, 8 min.)
Oscar Nominated Live-Action Shorts -- PLAYING SATURDAY, APRIL 24 AT THE STATE
- “Feeling Through”: A broke teen looks for shelter on a cold night. His random encounter with a middle-aged, deaf-blind man changes his course, possibly in more ways than one. Writer-director Doug Roland gets strong work from both performers: Robert Tarango actually is deaf and blind; Steven Prescod is convincing as a desperate kid who turns out to be a genuinely good person.
- “The Letter Room”: Oscar Isaac plays a corrections officer who takes over the job of scanning prisoner mail and gets involved in the lives revealed therein. It’s a well-acted, low-key drama that could be ready for expansion.
- “The Present”: A goodhearted Palestinian man takes his young daughter to pick up a gift for his wife; to do so, they must pass through an Israeli checkpoint. The stresses and humiliations complicating what should be a simple errand pile up, pushing him toward a potentially tragic outcome.
- “Two Distant Strangers”: Takes a familiar fantasy trope and applies it to a deadly serious subject: police mistreatment of Black Americans. To its credit, its denouement makes that gamble pay off. It evolves into something thoughtful, eventually becoming a startlingly dark commentary.
- “White Eye”: An examination of unintended consequences in modern-day Tel Aviv. When a young man seems to have solved the mystery of his stolen bicycle, his single-minded quest to reclaim it takes a turn that forces him to see with greater perspective. Shot in one continuous take, Tomer Shushan’s film puts its audience in a tense situation with steely focus until its deeper meaning becomes clear.
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— David Fair is the WEMU News Director and host of Morning Edition on WEMU. You can contact David at 734.487.3363, on twitter @DavidFairWEMU, or email him at dfair@emich.edu
