Overview
- This winter in Washtenaw County has been notably colder and snowier than most of the past decade, based on NOAA data from the University of Michigan Ann Arbor weather station. From early December through late January, snowfall has totaled roughly 38 inches, compared with a 1991–2020 average of about 29 inches for the same period, and the area has seen eight subzero nights versus a typical two to three. These figures place the current winter among the coldest locally since the late 2010s.
- Persistent snow cover provides measurable environmental benefits for southeastern Michigan soils. Snow insulates the ground, moderating soil temperatures and reducing extreme freeze–thaw cycles that can disrupt soil structure, microbial activity, and nutrient availability. In a county with extensive agricultural land and mixed forest cover, this insulation plays a role in maintaining winter soil stability.
Snowpack also functions as seasonal water storage for the Ann Arbor area and the broader Huron River watershed. Instead of precipitation immediately running off frozen ground, water is released more gradually during snowmelt, supporting soil moisture and streamflow into late winter and early spring. This process is a key reason hydrologist’s closely track winter snow conditions in the Great Lakes region.
- Research at the University of Michigan Biological Station shows why winter conditions matter beyond the cold months themselves. Scientists there use automated snowpack sensors to study how snow depth and melt timing affect forest productivity, water movement, and carbon cycling. Olivia K. Vought’s research connects this directly to ecosystem carbon balance, showing how the timing of snowmelt can influence how much carbon landscapes absorb during the growing season.
- A cold, snowy winter does not contradict long-term climate change trends in Washtenaw County or Michigan. State and regional climate assessments show that average temperatures have risen by about three degrees Fahrenheit over the past century, even as individual winters continue to vary widely. This season represents short-term weather variability layered on top of a well-documented long-term warming trend, not a reversal of it.
Transcription
David Fair: This is 89.1 WEMU, and we're curious to know how you feel about the cold and snowy conditions this winter. I'm David Fair, and I know a lot of people who love it. Personally, I know more that don't. But to shift perspective away from human sentiment, we thought we'd dive into the scientific perspective when it comes to winter weather. Welcome to this week's edition of Issues of the Environment, and our guest today is Dr. Olivia Vought. She is a global change biologist and has been conducting research at the University of Michigan Biological Station. And, Dr. Vought, thank you so much for the time today!
Dr. Olivia Vought: Thanks for bringing me on!
David Fair: In your personal life, are you a big fan of the cold and snow?
Dr. Olivia Vought: I am! I have to say I love cross-country skiing. I love going ice skating. And I've been having a lot of fun this winter.
David Fair: You know, for most people, that's just being a Michigander.
Dr. Olivia Vought: Exactly!
David Fair: For me, it's crazy. Now, do you get to do most of your research while warm and inside, or are you out in it?
Dr. Olivia Vought: Well, I would say that, at this point, I'm doing most of my research inside, kind of analyzing data and writing things up, but it's always fun when I get to go into the field in winter and measure things like nutrient dynamics and carbon fluxes. And I do get to do some of that in winter, which is also fun.
David Fair: I'm thinking rather anecdotally here, but based on my personal and casual observations, it's felt like the past few winters were pretty mild, and this one feels different. Does science back the increased number of shivers I've experienced through the late fall and early winter?
Dr. Olivia Vought: We certainly have been seeing that this has been a particularly cold and snowy winter. I think we're above our snow averages here in Washtenaw County that we've been seeing for the last few decades for sure. And this Arctic blast has certainly been particularly cold. But I'll remind you that even just in early January, our temperatures were almost 60 degrees. We had a warm spell that's almost hard to remember at this point, but we have still been seeing a lot of variability this winter, which has been becoming more and more normal.
David Fair: And that speaks to the cycle and intensity of our seasons. With the alarming rate of climate change, we seem to be experiencing less reliable cycles. Is that something you expect to continue?
Dr. Olivia Vought: Yes. One of the real hallmarks of climate change is this increased variability both in temperature and precipitation, seeing more and more intense storms and increased cycling of like freeze-and-thaws over winter, more intense warms in summer, and all of that is something we expect to continue.
David Fair: Well, as we look back on the more mild winters we've experienced over the past few years and the kind of winter we're having this time around, which is, overall and in a broad sense, better for the environment?
Dr. Olivia Vought: Well, our environment here in southeast Michigan is really built and used to our cold winters. And there's actually a lot of benefits of these colder winters for our environment. Though it seems like, if you look out the window right now, it might not seem like much is happening in the environment, but that layer of snow is actually providing some real big benefits to little organisms that live in the soil. These organisms are mostly microscopic. They're microorganisms like fungi and bacteria, and they're actually doing a lot of work over winter. They're processing things like nitrogen, that is then really important for plants throughout the growing season. And those little microorganisms really benefit from that insulating snow layer. So, though it seems counterintuitive, warmer winters actually create colder soils most of the time because without that insulating snow layer, the soil then becomes much colder. And those freeze-and-thaw dynamics can have some really big impacts on some little organisms that we can't see in the soil.
David Fair: This is 89.1 WEMU, and we continue our Issues of the Environment conversation with Dr. Olivia Vought. And explain to me the actual process of how you go about studying seasonal impact on the environment.
Dr. Olivia Vought: Yeah. Well, I'll say there's a lot of research that's really starting to focus on the seasonal dynamics at the University of Michigan Biological Station. A lot of people are starting to think about the effect of this relatively understudied winter season on our ecosystems around here in our forest. So, the way that I kind of do winter research is mostly by using something at the University of Michigan Biological Station called a flux tower. And this tower takes measurements of carbon dioxide at really frequent intervals across the whole year. So, in every season it's taking these carbon dioxide measurements, and it's been taking it since the 90s. And this really fine temporal scale allows us to kind of understand how different parts of the year, how changing winters might be impacting carbon fluxes across the whole year. So, since we have such large temporal resolution and, obviously, some years are far colder and snowier than other years, we can start to understand things like how changes in climate might be these carbon dynamics. So, I work at fairly large-scale carbon fluxes and how year-to-year variability and climate might be impacting our carbon dynamic.
David Fair: And as you gather this data and collect, are you going to use it to kind of model the longer-term impacts of climate change on tree and plant growth and the related impact on the wildlife and local ecology?
Dr. Olivia Vought: That is the hope for sure, yeah. So, learning more about the changing winters and really diving into the effect that something like more snow or less snow can have on the ecosystem can help us better understand how these impacts might be impacting forest and carbon dynamics into the future.
David Fair: We're talking with U of M Global Change Biologist, Dr. Olivia Vought on WEMU's Issues of the Environment. And, Dr. Vought, when we look at climate change and its impacts, we also have to take into consideration mitigation, remediation, and adaptation efforts when it comes to preparing for the future. Now based on the research you're doing, how are we grading out right now and are you starting to formulate ideas about addressing future needs?
Dr. Olivia Vought: Yeah. I mean, I think something that's really key to sort of understand is that we're really still learning a lot about especially how like these changing winters might be affecting our overall carbon dynamics. We're starting to really get indications that the amount of snow and those kinds of things can have really large impacts on climate change. So, I would say there's still a lot we need to understand going forward, but all of us scientists are working together to kind of get an answer to that question and understand what the future will look like.
David Fair: I know that you've already told us that there is a great benefit to having the kind of winter we're experiencing. As much as I would love to see palm trees in Michigan at some point, it's probably not good for the environment. But we've already kind of seen this migration. There used to never be buckeye trees in the state of Michigan, and now you can find them all the way up north. There are mosquitoes now in Michigan that used to be species only found as in Texas. So, we are seeing climate change have an impact just about on every aspect of our environmental life. Are we well-positioned for a sustainable future giving the early stages of where we are in all of this research toward adaptation?
Dr. Olivia Vought: I think it is. I mean, it is always a good sign to see that our environment adapts, and our environment does change in response to these changing temperatures. I keep coming back to there's a lot that we still need to understand. Like, when we think about tree migration and what trees we'll see here, there's lot more to it that we're starting to get an understanding for beyond just like. Are the seeds coming up here? There is a lot of processes underground, like mycorrhizal fungi and different microbial associations that help trees migrate and help various organisms kind of adapt to their new environments. And so, I think we are starting to see some adaptation, but I think different species will have a lot more trouble adapting to new environments than others. And we often see that the species that are sort of winners are sometimes ones that we wish weren't, like the mosquitoes and certain invasive plants are really, really good at adapting to their new environment. And so, with the progression of climate change, it's possible that we'll really start to see community shift, like our plant communities and our animal communities shifting to sort of more resilient, less sensitive individuals and species, which are sometimes those species like invasive plants that maybe aren't the ones that we would want to thrive. And so, it's important to note that there are definitely some sensitive individuals and species that will have a lot harder time adapting, but it is always heartening to see our environment adapting around us.
David Fair: I am certainly glad that you and a bunch of scientists like you and alongside you are out there doing the research and will help us all adapt to the future. Thank you so much for the conversation today!
Dr. Olivia Vought: Thank you so much! It's been a pleasure!
David Fair: That is Dr. Olivia Vought. She is a global change biologist and climate change researcher at the University of Michigan and has been our guest on Issues of the Environment. For more information on the topic, stop by our website at WEMU.org. We'll get you linked up everywhere you want to go. Issues of the Environment is produced in partnership with the office of the Washtenaw County Water Resources Commissioner, and you hear it every Wednesday. I'm David Fair, and this is your community NPR station, 89.1 WEMU Ypsilanti.
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