RESOURCES:
NPR: "What are the charges against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro?"
TRANSCRIPTION:
Caroline MacGregor: You're listening to 89.1 WEMU. I'm Caroline MacGregor. With me today is Javed Ali. He's an associate professor of practice at the Ford School of Public Policy. We're talking today about a move that has left foreign policy observers stunned. It's also sparked global debate, including here in Washtenaw County. And this, of course, has to do with President Trump, who recently stated that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife during a raid in that country. First of all, Javed, thank you for joining us today!
Dr. Javed Ali: Caroline, thank you for having me! And Happy New Year!
Caroline MacGregor: And the same to you! Let's talk about the implications here. What are your thoughts on a move on the part of a country that prides itself in democracy?
Dr. Javed Ali: So, Caroline, when I woke up early Saturday morning and saw the news of the military operation that had unfolded, I actually wasn't that surprised. And now, processing events over the weekend and thinking about it from a big picture perspective, this, to me, was the culmination of a months-long pressure campaign that the Trump Administration had started going back to probably the midpoint of last year and if that's the right framework to think about it, then examining the different policy tools that the administration used even before the weekend. So, dozens of boat strikes against vessels that were alleged to be piloted by members of drug cartels, also designated as foreign terrorist organizations by the United States, a very large military build-up in the region, which now includes at least 15,000 Marines, Air Force personnel, Navy personnel, Army personnel, lots of assets in the region. President Trump declared in October that he had authorized the CIA to engage in covert action in Venezuela, which, generally, presidents don't do that in advance. The rhetoric from the White House became increasingly more aggressive. And then, economic sanctions, the seizing of oil tankers, so all these things were swirling about. And then, from the press remarks with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, it was clear that this particular military operation had been planned for quite some period of time, because when you're talking about an operation to capture a foreign head of state in their capital in a heavily guarded compound, that requires an inordinate amount of intelligence and planning. And having come from that world in my government counter-terrorism career, I kind of know the playbook that was used. And then, the raid happened and was pulled off successfully at least from the U.S. perspective with no casualties and Maduro and his wife being captured and then being brought to the federal courthouse over the weekend to face the charges under the indictment. So, this, to me, is not that surprising because if you were paying attention to what was going on it was clear that Maduro's time was probably getting short, at least from the administration's perspective.
Caroline MacGregor: Maduro and his wife have since pleaded not guilty to narco-terrorism, among other charges in a federal court Monday in New York. Are they legitimate?
Dr. Javed Ali: Well, anytime the U.S. government is going to issue an indictment against someone, whether it's a foreign head of state or just a regular criminal or, even for my world, a terrorist who's captured, that indictment is backstop by evidence that then has to be presented in an open federal court and a jury trial, if it goes to a trial. And the defense team will then have access to that evidence, so they can build their best case against it. So, the indictments aren't to be taken lightly. There's a lot of thought that goes into that, because, sometimes, when the prosecution and law enforcement teams are building the indictment, they have to make sure, again, that the evidence will stand up in court and that they're also not going to compromise something that will give away a source or a method that allowed that evidence to be collected. But we don't have secret courts here in the United States. So, this will be an open trial, if it does go to trial. It doesn't surprise me that President Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty. And now the question is what will that legal strategy be on their side and the federal government's side? Because the government has the burden to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Maduro and his wife are guilty of those crimes, and there's four different charges in the indictment. So, it's going to be fascinating to see how this plays out. We also don't know if Maduro and his wife will seek a plea deal and not go to trial if they believe the evidence is so overwhelming against them. And these are all things that no one is going to know on the outside. We're just going to have to wait and see how it all plays out.
Caroline MacGregor: Locally, here in Washtenaw County, we've had a few protests this past weekend. Washtenaw Indivisible held a demonstration in downtown Ann Arbor to oppose what they term Trump's illegal war against Venezuela. And also, Ann Arbor Indivisible held their own protest. And we're hearing from both sides of the issues. Those who are supporting Trump are happy that the U.S.has taken Maduro. And those obviously who are against. What are the implications for us here for Venezuelans who have escaped to this country?
Dr. Javed Ali: I would have to imagine that, whether they support Delcy Rodriguez, who is now the new president, is Venezuela now safe to return to for Venezuelans here? Is that something that people are thinking about? Or on the flip side, are they thinking about having more relatives or family members come to the United States in the aftermath of what's happened? So, that, I would have to think, are some of the concerns here at the local level. But at the national level, one of the things that's not clear going forward is now that Maduro and his wife are captured, they're facing the federal charges, what is the future of Venezuela going to look like? Will Delcy Rodriguez be able to bring some sense of stability to the country? Will she have the support of the Venezuelan military, which is probably the most powerful institution? And will there be an attempt to foment some kind of coup against her? I don't know the answer. What will people like Maria Machado, and others who are opposition leaders, will they try to make a move to reassert their authority? President Trump, right now, seems lukewarm on the idea of Machado coming into power at some point. And again, I think the U.S.is at least more comfortable right now with Rodriguez. But the last thing I would think anyone in Washington wants to see, or the White House wants to say, is a replay of what happened, from a U.S,foreign from a policy perspective, in the aftermath of removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq in 2003, and all the anarchy and chaos that happened, not only in Iraq, but in the region as a result of that. And I had a direct insight into that--my first government job in 2002 to 2003, and it was a very uncomfortable position to be in to kind of see those policy decisions being made and people not really thinking through the long-term consequences of removing Saddam Hussein. That, I think, is one of the major risks going forward. What is the future of Venezuela going to look like, even in the short term? Because if it's going to become instable and anarchic and chaotic, that's not going to be good for anybody.
Caroline MacGregor: I know House Speaker Mike Johnson has said the U.S. Is not at war with Venezuela and doesn't expect to deploy troops. He states that it's not a regime change, but a change for behavior.
Dr. Javed Ali: Well, the sort of legal policy basis for this operation was kind of unique. So, it was not based on a congressional declaration of war against Venezuela, nor what occurred in 2001 and 2002. There's no authorization to use military force against Venezuela. There was an 2001 authorization to military force that supported the global campaign against Al-Qaeda and then, a decade later, ISIS, and it's still being used. And then, in 2002, Congress passed the authorization to use military force that allowed President Bush to go to war against Iraq. My understanding of sort of the rationale for the military operation over the weekend was that it was not an act of war per se, but a military operation designed to support a law enforcement one. Again, the goal was to capture Maduro and bring him back to the United States to face the criminal charges under the indictment. It was a more focused operation to capture someone who was already under indictment. And then, once he was captured, he was transferred to either DEA or FBI custody to then come back to the United States.
Caroline MacGregor: What does it mean, just quickly, for an external power like the U.S. to say that it will run another country during a transition? Doesn't this kind of revive distrust for regional alliances and political movements everywhere?
Dr. Javed Ali: Well, I think the model that's more appropriate here to think about is Iraq in 2003 and Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, where we tried to basically nation-build in both those countries. And despite a significant amount of blood and trillions of dollars and thousands of U.S. troops who were killed and tens of thousands who were wounded and injured, and obviously the impact on the ground in both countries, those projects didn't work. And I would have to think the White House is thinking through those lessons of not getting sucked back into another one of these forever wars, where the last thing you want to do is get into a country and try to figure out how to build institutions that previously didn't exist or run them in a way that is foreign to the local context, because the U.S. history on that is not good. And President Trump also campaigned on not doing this. When he said "run Venezuela" over the weekend, Marco Rubio, over the past couple of days, has tried to put a little more nuance on that. Again, I think what the administration position is now is that Delcy Rodriguez is the President of Venezuela, and the administration is going to be looking to see what steps she takes to make sure that Venezuela's behavior changes and the things that was doing, in the administration's eye, were threatening the United States will stop. But that military force that we talked about earlier, that military presence in the region, it's not going anywhere. And President Trump has also said, if President Rodriguez doesn't change, then there might be a second wave of attacks, and if we're thinking more of a campaign versus a more focused operation, which occurred over the weekend. Then, I would think Congress is going to have to get involved, because you're going to bump right up against these Article One versus Article Two authorities under the U.S. Constitution. Who is responsible for declaring war against another country under the constitutional framework in which we operate and how will that go?
Caroline MacGregor: I've been speaking with Javed Ali. He's an associate professor of practice at the Ford School of Public Policy. And we've been discussing the capture of Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, and the implications resulting from this arrest. Thank you so much for joining me today!
Dr. Javed Ali: Thank you, Caroline!
Caroline MacGregor: This is 89.1 WEMU-FM Ypsilanti.
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